“The world’s population is expected to increase by 2 billion persons in the next 30 years, from 7.7 billion currently to 9.7 billion in 2050 and could peak at nearly 11 billion around 2100.", says the United Nations.
What's astonishing about this? We all believe that the population is increasing at an exponential rate. It's a deep rooted concept taught to many through formal education and learnt by others through their experience on this planet.
However;
The foreseen population explosion is unlikely to happen. The world may, unlike popular belief, actually run out of people, according to the viewpoints of the Canadian journalist John Ibbitson and political scientist Darrell Bricker. They together penned a book called “EMPTY PLANET; THE SHOCK OF GLOBAL POPULATION DECLINE”. As the name suggests the authors dare to disagree with the forecasted statistics of the United Nations, the body whose figures are considered the Gospel truth by many literate and "woke" people.
“In roughly three decades, the global population will begin to decline
rather than continuing to increase exponentially", they argue, "the global population is headed for a steep decline—and in many countries, that decline has already begun."
These aren't statements made with a purpose to just mock the status of the UN but there is solid evidence with which the conclusions of the UN are nullified.
To begin with, let's understand the forecasting model of the UN. There are three rates which are considered for the purpose of predicting the future population. Those rates are the fertility rate, migration rate, and death rate. However, the significant rates that this model fails to include is the rate at which expansion of education for females is taking place and the rate at which we are moving towards urbanization.
The theory put forward in the book “EMPTY PLANET; THE SHOCK OF GLOBAL POPULATION DECLINE” provides some major lessons worth reflecting upon.
Firstly, the exponential increase we experience in the field of urbanization, secularization and education would definitely lead fertility to drop. Children, once perceived as a helping hand, have started being perceived as an expensive liability (at least in their growing age). Youthful grown-ups (or the millennials) begin to see having only one child or two as a satisfying educational encounter, as opposed to an obligation to their families, nation, or God.
The population explosion would only be happening if each and every woman in a country produced 2.1 children. If the number of kids falls below 1.5, that is, if the fertility rate falls under 1.5, it is nearly impossible to rise back above it again.
However, as pleasing it may sound, the World population decline does have some severe downsides.
The aging population and worker shortages weaken the economy and impose crippling demands on healthcare and social security. Almost all aspects of the normal social life would be disrupted by the same.
Recently, the news of the decline of the population in China due to its strict measure for birth control proves that the claims made iin the book may actually be true.
On the bright side, if the population contracts, the number of people working would decrease. This scarcity in demand of labour will lead to higher incomes for the wage earners ; the world might be saved from unbearable levels of pollution; the risk of famine might wane; and with it the status of women may improve, bringing greater affluence and autonomy to the oppressed sex in many developing countries.
It would be interesting to observe that over the years will the news of "We need to control our population" prevail or will the earth become as "empty" as how the human mind feels during this pandemic?
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